The Great Raymondo #030

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This Week: Walking the thin-line between… 28.9% & 26.6%.

The SNP got 28.9% in Scotland, compared to UKIPs 26.6% across the UK, and yet…

SNP in the line of fire

In the aftermath of the Euro-vote in Scotland, two parties are looking down the end of an election barrel. One is, of course, the Liberal Democrats, who were virtually wiped out, losing their only seat and falling back into sixth place behind the Greens. The other is the Scottish National Party… Its popular support appears to have stalled… The SNP’s voting share is actually down on its results five years ago.


The kiss of death

The SNP in fact secured almost 70,000 more votes in 2014 than it did in 2009, despite having been the government in Scotland for seven years. When there are big protest votes in elections it’s usually the government that suffers, but the SNP held its share and increased its actual vote by over 20%…

It’s [voting share is] down by 0.07%. To put that into perspective, if the results had been a standard opinion poll of around 1000 respondents, 0.07% would mean that LESS THAN ONE PERSON had actually changed their mind. That’s not a swing, that’s a rounding error.

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